A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
